The More Things Change: The Evolution of Software Estimation and Development Over the Past 35 Years
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The term “true original” is used to describe someone who is a trailblazer -- and it describes my father to a T. My dad was an early architect of software estimation, the process of predicting the time, effort, and manpower it takes to complete a software development project.
Thirty-five years ago, my father was a budget director for the Army’s computer programs. He had the unfortunate experience of having his funding significantly reduced when his IT team failed to properly articulate its software development goals in ways that were relatable to leaders. As a superior put it, “Whenever I talk to the IT guys, I hear about bits and bytes, programming languages, and bandwidth, but nothing that relates to time, effort, and cost.”
That comment sent my dad on a mission to develop a software estimation frameworkthat addressed the three points that his boss was most concerned about. He sought to expose what he called “a fundamental law of nature in our software production equation.”



