Software Estimation by the Seat of Your Pants

Software Estimation by the Seat of Your PantsThe laws of flight have many commonalities with the “physics” of software development. Whereas the principles of aerodynamics are essentially about thrust, drag, lift and weight, developing software has always been about the relationship between size (scope), effort (cost), duration (schedule) and the often overlooked measurement of quality (reliability).  

In aviation parlance the expression “flying by the seat of your pants” literally meant that you felt the plane through your “seat”. Early aircraft had limited navigational aids, mainly a rudimentary compass (which worked only when flying level) and a simple string to assess airflow relative to the plane’s fuselage. Pilots could determine the degree of an ascent or descent by G-force sensation, or assess airspeed by the severity of the aircraft’s vibrations. Until the invention of the gyroscope it was quite dangerous to fly without a virtual horizon – the centerpiece of a modern dashboard.

Early aeronauts plotted their routes using individual skill, celestial or fixed landmarks and their own real time perceptions rather than depending on mechanical tools. However, fog or low visibility would render the limited instruments they had useless, with the flight itself remaining as a risky endeavor. A successful trip meant you landed at your destination in one piece, but it was largely dependent upon the talent and judgment of the aviator, visibility and weather, and perhaps no small amount of luck.    

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Estimation

Ask Carol: No Free Lunch in Software Estimation and Benchmarking

No Free Lunch in Software Estimation BenchmarkingDear Carol: 

Given all your international experience, I’m hoping you can tell me where I can find a large, freely available industry database that project managers could use for software estimation and/or benchmarking.  After 5 decades of software development wouldn’t you think that we could put together a software estimation or benchmarking database that the world could use for free? 

- Hopeful in Hartford

Dear Hopeful:  

Great question – and the dream of many IT project managers.  It might seem like an easy concept (just collect actual effort and project size and use it for future estimates); in practice it’s not that simple.

What I know is that in software estimation and benchmarking, there is no free lunch -- you get what you pay for.  And I’ll explain why…

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Database Ask Carol

New Article: Set the Stage for Software Project Success

Set the Stage for Software Project Success

Management decisions made before a software project is underway are a significant factor in determining whether it succeeds or fails. In a recent article for Projects at Work, QSM's Don Beckett identifies seven principles, based on comprehensive studies, that leaders must support and uphold to help create an environment in which projects can succeed. Ignoring them practically guarantees failure.

Don Beckett has 18 years of experience in software project estimation, measurement, and analysis. His responsibilities at QSM include research, consulting, and customer support. Don was an analyst/co-author of the 2006 QSM Software Almanac and has contributed articles to Crosstalk and Software Tech News.

Read the full article!

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Articles Project Management

QSM's Doug Putnam Discusses Data Management on WUSA9's Government Contracting Weekly

In a recent interview on WUSA9's Government Contracting Weekly, a show devoted to winning government contracts, QSM Co-CEO Doug Putnam discussed data management with the show's host, Jim McCarthy. QSM was founded by Larry Putnam, Sr. in 1978 because he saw the need to supply quantitative evidence when justifying budgets for large government software projects. Doug explains the importance of leveraging quantitative measurement in today's dynamic goverment IT environment, from managing team size to improving quality. He also identifies the core metrics to track when starting your own metrics program. Watch the full episode above!

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QSM News

How a Collaborative Process Produces Realistic Estimates Fast Webinar Replay and Q&A Highlights

How a Collaborative Estimation Process Produces Realistic Estimates Fast

QSM's recent webinar, How a Collaborative Estimation Process Produces Realistic Estimates Fast, presented by Laura Zuber, sparked a lively Q&A session from our audience. Here are the highlights:

Q: How do I know which template to use when creating a new estimate in SLIM-WebServices?

A: That’s a good question. Your back office administrator configures templates to map to your software development lifecycle, your standard processes and different project types. The back office person can provide detailed descriptions and key information that are viewable from the Feasibility Wizard so you know which one to select.

Q: What makes a project assessed as conservative or risky?

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Webinars SLIM-WebServices

The Problem of Measuring Software Productivity

Measuring Software ProductivitySo, just why do we want to measure software productivity (without using the root word “productive” in the answer)?  I believe that it comes down to the desire to numerically evaluate an inherently complex process so that quantitative comparisons can be made to provide a basis for decision making:

  • Is output per unit of labor or cost increasing or decreasing?
  • Benchmarking against “the industry” or “the competition”
  • Identify practices that either promote or impede increased output and better quality

I’m sure there are many others that could be added to the list.

Issues

Traditionally, software productivity has been measured as a ratio between units of output and units of effort.  Simple productivity measures worked fairly well for well defined, repetitive manufacturing processes where a 10% increase in input reliably translates to a comparable increase in output, but there are massive problems with applying simple productivity measures to complex, non-repetitive design processes like software development.

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Productivity

Ask Carol: With Software Sizing, If You Don't Know the What, You Can't Estimate the How

Software Sizing and Project EstimationDear Carol: 

I’m a developer in our IT department and we know that project estimating is a big deal for our customers.  Somehow, no matter what we do, we can't seem to get it right.  We do know that project size is an important input to good estimating  and our gut feel is that if we get sizing right, we’ll do better estimates!  I know you recommend using function points, but I’ve also been reading a lot about use case points, story points, SLOC, sizing by analogy, T-shirt sizing, COSMIC and other sizing metrics.  We do a mix of waterfall, agile, iterative and even Kanban to do our projects so what’s the best choice for sizing to get the best results? 

- Size Challenged in Milwaukee

Dear Size Challenged:    

Sometimes I wonder if the internet and the proliferation of (mis)information is a good thing. Before the internet, our choices (for sizing or estimating or anything) were limited and we didn’t have such an overwhelming task to first sift through many options before taking action.  Your list of software sizing choices is an example of this. 

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Software Sizing Estimation Ask Carol

Data-Less Decision Making

I rather enjoyed the Google Analytics April Fools prank earlier this month, Welcome to Data-Less Decision Making on Analytics Academy.  Though satirical, this video brings to light an important reason why individuals have such trouble making decisions in a business environment: they don’t have data.

I’ll agree that without data it’s really appealing to turn to the coin flip method and be done with it.  After all, 50/50 odds really aren’t terrible, right?  But project management software such as SLIM-Estimate make empirically-based business decisions possible, even when company data isn’t immediately available.

Leveraging our database that contains over 10,000 projects, QSM has developed and regularly updates 17 distinct industry trends.  When creating an estimate or benchmarking a past performance, simply select the QSM industry trend that most closely reflects the type of system being built.  This will serve as a reference point.

If historical data is available but you’re unsure of which metrics to collect, SLIM-SmartSheets is a new downloadable feature in SLIM version 8.2 that mimics the look and feel of SLIM-DataManager and allows users to collect project data, even when they’re not on a network computer.  Each project can then be pulled into one SLIM-DataManager file using the API.  

SLIM-SmartSheets

New Article - Software Estimation: How Misperceptions Mean We Almost Always Get It Wrong

In a recent, highly-discussed article for Dr. Dobb's, QSM's Carol Dekkers asks a tough question: why are we so woefully poor at estimating software projects? It's a tough pill to swallow considering software developers are among the smartest people on the planet, often boasting advanced degrees in mathematics, engineering, or computer science. Yet study upon study cites that less than one-third of projects are delivered on time or on budget. The problem of software project estimation is not straightforward. To get the heart of the issue, Carol Dekkers takes us through the five top misperceptions about software estimating, and what we can do to address them.

Read the full article on Dr. Dobb's!

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Estimation Articles

SLIM Suite 8.2: The New Look

The new look and feel of the default workbooks in SLIM Suite are based around infographic and dashboard design principles.  Information Dashboard Design by Stephen Few served as an excellent resource for updating the views and color schemes in SLIM Suite 8.2.  Our goal in updating the look and feel of SLIM-Suite 8.2 was to highlight the pertinent inputs and outputs in bright, bold colors and to allow other view elements like gridlines or historic data to fade into the background by using more muted colors, allowing you to focus on the important metrics when making key management decisions. 

New views in SLIM-Estimate

New views in SLIM-Estimate

As you step through the default workbook in SLIM-Estimate, you'll notice that the default folders and view names have changed.  Views have been reorganized into folders with descriptive, functional names to make it easier to find the right views, charts, and reports and give users a more effective dashboard for evaluating solutions, adjusting them and reviewing logged solutions.

SLIM Suite 8.2 comes with four themes to choose from, plus two placeholders for your own custom themes.

White Background (Default)

White background

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SLIM Suite Tips & Tricks