On large software development and acquisition programs, testing phases typically extend over many months. It is important to forecast the quality of the software at that future time when the schedule calls for testing to be complete. In this article, originally published in CrossTalk, Paul Below shows how Walter Shewhart’s Control Charts can be applied to this purpose, in order to detect a signal that indicates a significant change in the state of the software. This signal detection is then used to improve mapping of project progress to forecast curves and thereby improve estimates of project schedule.

At QSM, we have one of the largest industry databases in the world of completed software projects. The data comes from our clients with their permission and this data has been the backbone of our software estimation business for over 35 years. We can see what is reasonable on software development projects as it relates to cost, team size, effort, duration, size, and reliability. Because of our experience we are often asked about risk factors and estimation accuracy early in the project lifecycle. We explain that increased accuracy comes with having historical data and good sizing information.

But what happens on the early estimates when clients don’t have history and detailed sizing information? Can they still generate scope level estimates so they can make good business decisions? The answer is yes. Risk management techniques can be applied and project uncertainty can be calculated so organizations can plan effectively. This is very important because big business decisions are often made early. Decision-makers need to know if they should move forward with a project and they need to know how much time and effort to allocate.

We use SLIM-Estimate, which is a leading estimation tool that leverages the Putnam Model. It generates reliable estimates based on QSM’s time-tested forecasting models and historical data and it also provides scope level estimates when project information is hard to find. It will allow you to see the chance you have of hitting your project goals and it will allow you to factor in your uncertainty.

How in the world does landing on an aircraft carrier relate to software estimation? Anyone who has ever experienced the terror joy of landing a jet on an aircraft carrier, especially on that dark, stormy night with no moon and a pitching deck, appreciates the importance of a good start. Your line-up is critical, as is your airspeed, angle-of-attack and attention to the "ball" – that tiny little yellow dot between the rows of green lights. As a former Bombardier/Navigator in the Grumman A6E Intruder, I have teamed with pilots on over 300 landings, all of which I have lived through. My job was to monitor and call the line-up and radar altimeter, handle the radios, manage the fuel and generally avoid sounding terrified for the entire evolution.

The process was made significantly easier if we arrived at the 3/4 mile point behind the ship at the right airspeed, gross weight, angle of attack, altitude and line up. Sort of like juggling a bunch of skittish cats.

But when all those parameters came together, we had a good start. When embarking on a software development project, or any engineering project, it’s equally important to have a strong foundation. That means having a solid idea of the characteristics of the project, what resources are (or should be) available, what duration is most likely and how good does it have to be. A software estimation tool can provide the project manager with this essential information.

If you were unable to attend our recent webinar, "Avoiding Disaster in IT Outsourcing: A Quantitative Solution for Vendor Management," a replay is now available.

In the Forbes article “Now Every Company is a Software Company,” David Kirkpatrick argues “regardless of industry your company is now a software company, and pretending that it’s not spells serious peril.”

As organizations in nearly every industry sector transform into software companies, many executives, project managers, and procurement departments are being thrust into the role of managing IT vendors on software projects, yet they do not have the expertise to do so effectively. Typical pain points include:

With the most recent spurt of inclement weather, there is really no denying that winter is here.  After awaking to about 4 inches of snow accumulation, I begrudgingly bundled myself up in my warmest winter gear and proceeded to dig out my car.  Perhaps the brisk air woke me up faster than usual because as I dug a path to the car, I began to think about software testing, specifically how effective early testing can reduce the chances of schedule slippages and cost overruns.  Allow me to explain.

I am excited about the resource demand management capabilities in our newest SLIM-Estimate release (8.2). Software project estimates can now provide a breakout of Full Time Equivalent (FTE) staffing requirements by role by month. The staffing profile below shows how different roles, or skills, are required at different points in the schedule, based upon a particular development methodology. You can see that 6 FTE Programmers are needed by the month of May. Producing a high-level, scope-based estimate early in the software development lifecycle with detailed resource demand data helps the PMO and portfolio managers determine the best timing for project resource allocation, and setting project start dates that maximize productivity and reduce bottlenecks.

Once the estimate and resulting project skills allocation plan has been approved, resource demand management has not ended. Tracking actual staffing at the skill and task level for in-flight projects not only ensures the right people are working on the right things, meaning that product development is on track, it also allows timely resource plan adjustments to address unforeseen staffing needs.

It is no coincidence that this year’s release of the 2014 QSM Software Almanac has been coined the Research Edition. The data, research, insights, analysis and trends packed into the 200+ page book truly make it the ultimate resource for software development and estimation. That said, I thought I’d share just a few of the highlights from this year’s Almanac as a little teaser to what you’ll find when you download the full (and free) resource.

QSM's recent webinar, Organizational Success; A Practical Guide to the Estimation Center of Excellence, presented by J.D. Ottenbreit, featured a lively Q&A session from our audience. Here are the highlights:

Q: You mentioned that data is critical to an Estimation Center of Excellence, what if we don’t have any good data yet?