How is baseball analysis like software project management?  One way is the ability to continually update estimates and forecasts, as the situation and our knowledge change.  As Larry Putnam Jr recently wrote, “project estimation should continue throughout the entire project lifecycle”. 

Walter Shewhart, the father of Statistical Process Control, explained it like this:

“…since we can make operationally verifiable predictions only in terms of future observations, it follows that with the acquisition of new data, not only may the magnitudes involved in any prediction change, but also our grounds for belief in it.”

Here is a baseball example that should appear very familiar to software estimators who are familiar with the often quoted cone of uncertainty.  The following graph is taken from Curve Ball: Baseball, Statistics, and the Role of Chance in the Game, by Jim Albert and Jay Bennett.

The above model is based upon only a few simple items:  The number of homeruns hit so far; the number of games played so far and number remaining; and the total number of games in a season.  We could try to improve the model, especially early in the season, by incorporating more information.  For example:  

QSM's recent webinar, From Proposal to Project: Getting Resource Demand Early, presented by Andy Berner and Keith Ciocco, featured a thoughtful Q&A session from our audience. Here are the highlights:

Q: Which PPM products does SLIM work with right now?

A: We're working with customers to see what products they're interested in. It's adaptable to multiple PPM systems and we'd like your input on which ones we should deliver for you early. We can work with you so you can build a customized input to your own system. So the framework is very general and is released as part of the SLIM product. We will be providing adapters to common PPM systems and that's what we would like to learn from our design partners - which ones to deliver first. (Note: if you are a SLIM customer or prospect, you can request to join our design group by emailing Keith Ciocco).

Q: You showed SLIM-WebServices. Does that come with the desktop tool? Do you use them separately or together?